Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 08:54:25 -0230 (NDT)
From: dapike@math.mun.ca (David Pike)
To: PIKE-DNA-L@rootsweb.com
Subject: [PIKE-DNA] Some Recent Results


Hi everybody.

I imagine that there will be more news soon, as there are several
test results expected any time now (4 for newcomers to our DNA project,
and several upgrades for current participants).  Still, there have
been a few recent results, which is what I want to mention in this
email.  Here they are, more or less in chronological order:

1. Roger (33184) upgraded to 37 markers.  Previously he and Bryan (28606)
   had a genetic distance of 6 when based on 25 markers.  They actually
   match on 21 out of 25 markers, but for two of the four mismatching markers
   their marker values differ by 2.

   With the additional 12 markers from Roger's upgrade from 25 to 37 markers,
   we find that 9 markers match with Bryan, while 3 differ.  Of these 3,
   two differ by just 1 between them, while their values for the remaining
   marker differ by 2.  So their 37-marker genetic distance is 10.
   Based on these results, FTDNA estimates the likelihood that Bryan and Roger
   share a common Pike forefather in the past 300 years at about 9%.
   At 500 years the probability is estimated to be about 47%, while
   at 600 years the probability is estimated to be about 66%.

   The estimates when we only had 25 markers to compare were about
   10%, 37%, and 52%.  So in this case the extra markers, most of which
   were matches, improved the odds of a semi-recent relationship
   ("semi-recent" being on the order of 500 or so years, meaning 20
   or so generations).

   Still, both Bryan and Roger have lots of semi-close matches in the
   FTDNA database, so it's difficult to tell if there really is a
   relationship or if it's just by chance that Roger and Bryan share
   somewhat similar Y-DNA.

2. Steven (60440), who descends from Manassah Pike, joined our project
   a few months ago and has recently received his 25-marker results.
   His closest match within our project is with Greg (47429) but at a
   genetic distance of 8.  FTDNA estimates the likelihood of a common
   forefather within the past 500 years to be about 10%.  Add to this
   a rather distinctive pair of results for markers DYS-385a,b (Steven
   has a 14,14 combination that is uncommon within the R1b haplogroup)
   and it seems clear that Steven's DNA represents a new genetic Pike
   line for our project, bringing the tally up to at least fourteen.

3. Roy (31483) is the first (and so far only) member of our project
   to receive results from an upgrade to the new set of 67 markers.
   Several others have ordered upgrades too, so we should soon be
   able to perform some comparisons on these extra markers.  We should
   also be able to "triangulate" what several of the extra marker
   values should have been for John Pike who settled in Massachusetts
   in 1635.

4. Another new member (60124) had 25-marker results come out, clearly
   showing that he is a relative of John Pike who settled in Massachusetts
   in 1635.  Interestingly, this new member's results include a mutation
   on one marker:  he has an 18 for marker DYS-448, whereas we had
   previously only seen 19's among John's kin.

- David.